Thanks Giving Day: Crude Oil Futures drop more than 10%. Big Trouble Ahead?

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This is abnormal! Crude Oil drops more than 10% when everyone is complacent and on holiday mode.  Stock Market keeps going up but Treasury Yield keep dropping. Next week will be a very good lesson for all the retail investors!

Crude Oil Nov 29-2014 Futures Nov29-2014

  • Retail investors have NO chance to run if there is a sudden drop in the share price. Big guys still can trade “after trading hours”.
  • Stock Market can be manipulated and give everyone an illusion but something already happening quietly somewhere. Check the Yield Curve!

Treasury Yield Nov 29-2014

Sit tight and watch the show!

To those retail investors and newbies who believe into those “Get Rich Quick” class and believe it is very easy to make money from the stock market by just copying someone’s proprietary trading system, please think twice! There is no free lunch in this world because even Warren Buffet and Carl Ichan can lose huge money in the stock market.

Carl Icahn loss money Warran Buffet IBM Loss

 

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Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR): Fundamental & Technical Analysis, Risk Assessment

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Fundamental Analysis of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR):

Technical Analysis of Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR):

LMIR is currently on the down trend but approaches the previous resistance turned support level at about $0.33. If LMIR is able to hold above $0.33 and consolidate around this support zone, it may be a good entry point in view of the strong fundamental, undervalue NAV and nice DPU yield. Keep an eye on the reversal chart pattern and candlestick patterns when LMIR reaches this support zone.

LMIR Nov 22-14

 

Risk Assessment:

One of the biggest Risks is currency exchange risk, where LMIR collects rental in IDR but DPU pay out in SGD. Looking at the SGD/IDR chart, SGD/IDR is trading within the range of 9,000 and 9,500. It is good news to LMIR if SGD is weaken against IDR and vice versa.

SGD IDR Exchange Nov22-2014

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FIRST REIT: Consolidating in a Rectangle

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FIRST REIT is currently trading sideway in a Rectangle chart pattern.

2014Nov21-FirstREIT-800x600

  • Fundamentally FIRST REIT looks great.
  • FIRST REIT Valuation overvalue. Price/NAV High = 1.7, Price/NAV = 1.05
  • Technically FIRST REIT on long term uptrend (200D SMA is still trending up) but in consolidating mode currently.
  • 200D SMA support, Rectangle support and 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement support at $1.17. A good entry level if the support holds.

See Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis comparison table here.

 

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