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Chinese New Year Bloodshed in Stock Market?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 25, 2014

Dow Jones Industrial plunged more than 300 points on Friday. S&P500 and NASDAQ also dropped more than 2%. Basically ALL RED to celebrate the Chinese New Year! Is this the start of the long overdue stock market correction? Base on the stock market heatmap, looks like all sectors and worldwide stock market want to celebrate the Chinese New Year together!

Original post by Marubozu @ My Stocks Investing Journey.

Jan 24, 2014 (Friday) Market Snap Shot

Bear totally in-charged throughout the day. Bull was totally knocked out.

US Jan24-2014 Hourly Chart

All red for S&P500 Heatmap. Only Microsoft (MSFT), Kimbely-Clark (KMB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) showed gain but don’t be fooled by this + gain because they closed the day with a bearish candle.

S&P500 Heatmap Jan 24-2014

Industrial Goods sector is the worst performing sector and Utilities is the relative best performing sector. A typical pattern of a bearish market as Utilities is the defensive sector.

Sector Weekly Performance Jan24-2014

VIX jumped 31.74% to 18.14. This is a very bearish sign. If VIX does not drop in the next few sessions, expect more bloodshed in the stock market.

Only Short ETF (Bearish ETF) showed huge rally.

What is Short ETF?

ETF Jan24-2014

Worldwide Market showed all RED to celebrate the Chinese New Year.

WorldWide Jan24-2014

Is the Bear Waking Up?

Dow Jones Industrial, S&P500, NASDAQ are still on the uptrend. The 200D SMA are still sloping up and technically the market is still on up trend. However, it is important to take note that currently the stock market is at the Market Top. Anything can happen at this juncture on top of the QE tapering. So, watch the support closely and also the chart pattern. If there is formation of Head and Shoulder, the right shoulder formation is the best chance for investors to get out.

Dow Jones Jan25-2014

S&P500 Jan25-2014

NASDAQ Jan25-2014

What About Singapore Straits Time Index?

STI is trading in a Symmetrical Triangle with a critical support at 3024. This 3024 has been tested a few times (resistance turned support). More down side to come if this support is broken. Technically STI is in bearish consolidation territory and 200D SMA is sloping down now.

STI Jan24-2014

Summary

There are signs that the Bear has just woke up. It is still at early stage. The US Stock Market may be starting a little correction and continue the uptrend. Watch the support closely and trade base on what we see. This is not the good time to “hope” market can continue to go up and living in denial if we are seeing red in our portfolio. Tighten your stop loss, hedge your portfolio, prepare to cut loss or prepare to SHORT!

Wish everyone a Happy Chinese New Year but it depends on how we make decision and what we want to see in our portfolio (red or green)!

Noble Group: Head and Shoulder

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 25, 2014

Noble Group has broken down from a Head and Shoulder pattern with neckline at about $1.00. Price target for this break down is about $0.87. Expect more down side in the coming weeks.

See previous analysis on Noble Group here.

Current P/E Ratio (ttm)	27.8408
Estimated P/E(12/2013)	15.5594
Relative P/E vs. FSSTI	2.1405
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm)	0.0268
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2013)	0.0480
Est. PEG Ratio	1.3955
Market Cap (M SGD)	6,329.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,628.03
30 Day Average Volume	15,960,800
Price/Book (mrq)	0.9757
Price/Sale (ttm)	0.0493
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield	2.36%
Cash Dividend (USD)	0.0181
Dividend Ex-Date	05/14/2013
5 Year Dividend Growth	0.53%
Next Earnings Announcement	02/28/2014

Why Most Investors Lose Money in Real Estate and Property Stocks in 2013?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 23, 2014

In general, your portfolio should have a lot of red (if you are still holding now) if you have invested in any property stocks (Capitaland, Keppel Land, City Development, UOL, etc) and REITs but did not hedge your portfolio with CFD.

So A-million dollar questions to most of the investors or traders in Singapore including myself:

Is it the right time to pick up property stocks or REITs since the stock price has dropped so much?
What should I do if I am still holding those property stocks and REITs? Should I cut loss or hold on and wait for the recovery?
Is there any trading opportunity in property stocks?

Fundamentally the real estate / property sectors are hit by all the cooling measures and fear of interest hike due to QE tapering. I will not touch on the above 2 topics as there are already a lot of news and articles talking the impact to the property sectors in Singapore. I will be focusing in using technical analysis to analyse the overall trend for property sectors as a whole and individual stocks.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index

The index is trading in a Elliott Wave pattern and there is a possibility to start a Big Wave C down if break down from the Falling Wedge.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index

Singapore REITs is officially enter into bear trend after dropping more than 20% from the top.

The chart pattern is similar to FTSE ST Real Estate Index (Elliott Wave + Falling Wedge). More selling of the REIT is the support (about 690) of Falling wedge is broken.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Components Stocks

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks and Property Stocks

Fundamental Comparison for Singapore REITs

Hong Kong Land – Down Trend

Global Logistic Properties (GLP) – Up Trend

Capitaland – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

City Development – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

UOL Limited – Trading in a Falling Wedge.

CapitaMall Trust – In consolidation.

Ascendas REIT – Consolidation in Rectangle. Range Bound.

Suntec REIT – In consolidation.

CapitaCommercial Trust – In consolidation.

Summary

Most of the property stocks and REITs either trading on down trend on in consolidation. Take note that the stocks are trading below 200D SMA (long term trend) which is sloping down (bearish signal). Base on the charts, this property and Real Estate sector have not found the bottom yet and probably will continue trading in a down trend in 2014. Bad news for investors who are still holding the stocks but good news for traders who know how to short the stock market. It will be a while for those smart investors who want undervalue stocks (Hong Kong Land, Capitaland, UOL, Keppel Land) to buy at bottom but need to keep a close eye on the chart.