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Will Shipping Stocks in 2014 Recover?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 21, 2014

2014 is Wooden Horse Year. Base on Fengshui and Numerology, stocks associate with water and transportation (Horse is used as transportation in the old days) should do well in 2014. This trigger me to do an analysis on the Maritime sector and shipping stocks in Singapore.

Original post by Marubozu from My Stocks Investing Journey.

FTSE ST Maritime Index Chart

The index has started an uptrend (forming a Higher High and Higher Low) but need to see whether all the key component stocks are on up trend. If all big cap component stocks are showing the same up trend pattern, it means the shipping sector has recovered in 2014 as investors are back in this sector.

FTSE ST Maritime Index Components Stocks

Yangzijiang has the largest weightage (48.31%) in this index, followed by NOL, Cosco Corp, Jaya Holding and the rest.

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks

In general, Yangzijiang has the best fundamental compare with other stocks in this Maritime Index, followed by Jaya Holding. Cosco & NOL fundamental are pretty weak at the moment. We need to monitor Cosco & NOL in the coming earning announcement to see whether there are any significant improvement in the financial.

Yangzijiang Chart

YZJ is on uptrend and currently testing the uptrend support. This is the main reason that the FTSE ST Maritime Index is on up trend as YZJ has the largest weightage on the index. This is a FALSE alarm that Maritime or Shipping Industry has recovered.

COSCO Chart

Cosco is currrently forming a Symmetrial Triangle and looks like has bottoming up. Watch out for the breakout and move above the 200D SMA resistance. This is the reversal pattern.

NOL Chart

NOL is consolidating in a big Descending Triangle and looks like finding a bottom at about $1.00. Watch out for the breakout to upside for trend reversal.

Jaya Holding Chart

Jaya Holding chart is bullish. The stock may move higher if the whole industry recovers due to Jaya’s good fundamental and the valuation is not demanding.

In Summary

There is a chance that Shipping stocks will recover in 2014.

Things to watch out for:

Fundamentally Cosco & NOL must show improvement in their financial performance for subsequent 2 quarters.
Technically Cosco & NOL must breakout and move above the 200D SMA resistance.
As long as there are no shock news in terms of financial performance for Yangzijiang, Cosco & NOL, shipping stocks should recover and start an uptrend in 2014.

SingPost: Upside Limited

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 21, 2014

SingPost is currently trading in a Rising Wedge but up trend momentum is slowing down. Immediate resistance at $1.35 (the Wedge resistance) followed by $1.40 (Previous High). Upside is limited as the Current PE of SingPost is 20.5 with 4.66% Dividend Yield. There are many stocks with better dividend yield than SingPost.

Original post by Marubozu from My Stocks Investing Journey.

Current P/E Ratio (ttm)	20.5238
Estimated P/E(03/2014)	17.1795
Relative P/E vs. FSSTI	1.5494
Earnings Per Share (SGD) (ttm)	0.0653
Est. EPS (SGD) (03/2014)	0.0780
Est. PEG Ratio	–
Market Cap (M SGD)	2,560.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,910.76
30 Day Average Volume	2,395,533
Price/Book (mrq)	7.8592
Price/Sale (ttm)	3.7725
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield	4.66%
Cash Dividend (SGD)	0.0125
Dividend Ex-Date	11/13/2013
5 Year Dividend Growth	0.00%
Next Earnings Announcement	01/24/2014

Is Stock Market a Pasar Malam?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 21, 2014

I receive many questions whether this is the right time to buy stocks. I also saw many investors to tell others to buy this stock or buy that stock when the price has dropped significantly….

Original post by Marubozu from My Stocks Investing Journey.

There is no right or wrong answer because it very much depend on individual risk appetite and risk tolerance (ie. holding power).

My humble thoughts:

Stock Market is not a Pasar Malam, it does not mean we must buy when the stock price has dropped significant or cheap (or Perceived Cheap). Cheap stock can get cheaper! Low Stock Price does not mean the Stock is cheap.
When the chart is showing a confirmed Down Trend, why do we need to be so hurry to buy and lose more money?
Some property counters are trading below the NAV (ie. under value) but undervalue stock can become more undervalue if it is on the down trend. Do you know that NAV can drop when interest rate increases?
Some REITs are offering attractive dividend, do you know what your Total Invested Capital can lose more than 10% within a month (on down trend) while you are chasing for a Annual Dividend Yield of 6-7%?
Do not Live in Denial. Down Trend is Down Trend (This is Fact and can be seen on the chart). The stock price will go lower in the down trend. No point to “selectively” search for “make yourself feel good” factors to stay in the trade (This is Hope). I have seen many investors to find all the good reasons to justify themselves to hold on the losing trades and “hope” the stock will come back one day. There must be some reasons why the stock price plunge and beaten down badly. What make them feel that their analysis is always right? Trade base on what we see but not what we hope.
Do not fall in love with certain stocks. Stock is NOT your girl friend / boy friend or wife / husband, and you don’t need to have love affair with the stocks. The objective of Investing in stock is to make Money $$. You don’t need to be faithful to the stocks which can’t make you money. Dump the stocks and move to seek for another Good Stock (to long) or Bad Stock (to short.)

To cut the long story short, it is NO WAY we as retail investors (even professional traders and economists) to know everything about the stock market. My approach is ALWAYS refer to the chart when in doubt. Those stock price in the chart will tell the whole story. I will not invest in any stock when there is a down trend no matter how attractive is the valuation or good news (which can be manipulated).