Money & Me: Can S-REITs maintain its upswing from Q1?

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11 April 2022

Money and Me: Can S-REITs maintain its upswing from Q1?

Singapore REITs are poised to benefit from positive momentum as Singapore eases pandemic restrictions and border measures. But can they maintain the upswing? Michelle Martin gets an analysis from Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor.

 

Timestamps

0:20 Intro

1:28 Outlook on Office S-REITs with more returning to the office

4:49 Hospitality REITs were the strongest performers in the past month. What are the contributing factors?

7:00 6 REITs dropped in March, which are they and why?

  • Lendlease REIT Rights Issue and EC World REIT debt refinancing

9:04 Is the S-REIT market at fair value? Why is the S-REIT market still attractive

11:20 If geopolitical tensions ease (Real Estate as a safe haven), will money flow out of the REIT market? How would inflation affect utilities, maintenance costs and hence REIT distributions?

 

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

2022

2021

2020

 

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingMoney & Me: Can S-REITs maintain its upswing from Q1?

Singapore REIT Monthly Update (April 3rd 2022)

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Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS351020)


FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increased from 827.88 to 864.41 (4.41%) compared to the last month update. The Singapore REIT index rebounded off from the support level at 807 3 times, broke the 836 resistance turned support level and is now trading between the 836-890 range.

  • Support Lines: Blue
  • Resistance Lines: Red
  • Short-term direction: Upwards
  • Medium-term direction: Sideways
  • Long-term direction: Sideways
  • Immediate Support at 836, followed by 807.
  • Immediate Resistance at 890.

The REIT Index traded between 807 and 836 for much of March, before breaking the 836 resistance on March 17. It has entered a short-term uptrend since then, reaching 864.41 as of now.

Previous chart on FTSE ST REIT index can be found in the last post: Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on March 6th, 2022.

Fundamental Analysis of 40 Singapore REITs


The following is the compilation of 40 Singapore REITs with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio.

  • The Financial Ratios are based on past data and there are lagging indicators.
  • This REIT table takes into account the dividend cuts due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Yield is calculated trailing twelve months (ttm), therefore REITs with delayed payouts might have lower displayed yields, thus yield displayed might be lower for more affected REITs.
  • All REITs are now updated with the Q4 2021 business updates/earnings. SPH REIT has the latest Q1 2022 business updates/earnings.
  • Digital Core REIT has recently IPOed in December (highlighted in yellow) and have their values extracted from IPO Prospectuses. Yield is calculated based on *Estimated DPU (calculated from the Prospectus) / Current Price.

Data from StocksCafe REIT Screener. https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced

What does each Column mean?

  • FY DPU: If Green, FY DPU for the recent 4 Quarters is higher than that of the preceding 4 Quarters. If Lower, it is Red.
    • Most REITs are green since it is compared to 2020 as the base (during the pandemic)
  • Yield (ttm): Yield, calculated by DPU (trailing twelve months) and Current Price as of April 2nd, 2022
    • Digital Core REIT: Yield calculated from IPO Prospectus.
  • Gearing (%): Leverage Ratio.
  • Price/NAV: Price to Book Value. Formula: Current Price (as of April 2nd, 2022) over Net Asset Value per Unit.
  • Yield Spread (%): REIT yield (ttm) reference to Gov Bond Yields. REITs trading in USD is referenced to US Gov Bond Yield, everything else is referenced to SG Gov Bond Yield.
  •  

Price/NAV Ratios Overview

  • Price/NAV increased to 1.00.
    • Changed from 0.97 from March 2022.
    • Singapore Overall REIT sector is at fair value now.
    • Take note that NAV is adjusted downward for most REITs due to drop in rental income during the pandemic (Property valuation is done using DCF model or comparative model)
  • Most overvalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Parkway Life REIT (Price/NAV = 2.03)
    • Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.69)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.50)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.36)
    • Digital Core REIT (Price/NAV = 1.33)
    • ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust (Price/NAV = 1.26)
    • No change in the Top 6 constituents compared to last month (March 6th 2022 update)
  • Most undervalued REITs (based on Price/NAV)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV = 0.56)
    • BHG Retail REIT (Price/NAV = 0.62)
    • ARA US Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.71)
    • OUE Commercial REIT (Price/NAV = 0.74)
    • Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.76)
    • Far East Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.76)

Distribution Yields Overview

  • TTM Distribution Yield decreased to 5.86%.
    • Decreased from 6.00% in March 2022.
    • 14 of 40 Singapore REITs have distribution yields of above 7%.
    • Do take note that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account the delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19, and economic recovery. 
  • Highest Distribution Yield REITs (ttm)
    • United Hampshire REIT (9.38%)
    • Prime US REIT (9.04%)
    • Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (8.68%)
    • EC World REIT (8.64%)
    • First REIT (8.56%)
    • Elite Commercial REIT (8.42%)
    • Reminder that these yield numbers are based on current prices taking into account delayed distribution/dividend cuts due to COVID-19.
    • Some REITs opted for semi-annual reporting and thus no quarterly DPU was announced.
    • A High Yield should not be the sole ratio to look for when choosing a REIT to invest in.
  • Yield Spread decreased to 3.49%.
    • Decreased from 4.14% in March 2022.

Gearing Ratios Overview

  • Gearing Ratio remained similar at 37.03%. 
    • Decreased from 37.04% in March 2022.
    • Gearing Ratios are updated quarterly. Only SPH REIT has its gearing ratio updated compared to last month.
    • In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy but increased due to the reduction of the valuation of portfolios and an increase in borrowing due to Covid-19.
  • Highest Gearing Ratio REITs
    • ARA Hospitality Trust (44.3%)
    • Suntec REIT (43.7%)
    • Manulife US REIT (42.8%)
    • Frasers Hospitality Trust (42.5%)
    • Lippo Malls Retail Trust (42.5%)
    • Elite Commercial REIT (42.4%)
    • No Change compared to last month’s update

Market Capitalisation Overview

  • Total Singapore REIT Market Capitalisation increased by 4.71% to S$111.89 Billion.
    • Increased from S$106.86 Billion in February 2022.
  • Biggest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust ($15.07B)
    • Ascendas REIT ($12.37B)
    • Mapletree Logistics Trust ($8.69B)
    • Mapletree Industrial Trust ($7.18B)
    • Mapletree Commercial Trust ($6.28B)
    • Frasers Logistics & Commercial Trust ($5.46B)
    • No change in Top 5 rankings since August 2021.
  • Smallest Market Capitalisation REITs:
    • BHG Retail REIT ($292M)
    • ARA US Hospitality Trust ($381M)
    • Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust ($407M)
    • United Hampshire REIT ($440M)
    • First REIT ($490M)
    • Sabana REIT ($503M)
    • No change in Top 6 rankings compared to last month’s update

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. If you want to know more about investing in REITs, here’s a subsidised 2-day course with all you need to know about REITs and how to start investing in them.

Top 20 Best Performers of the Month in March 2022


 (Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/advanced)

SG 10 Year & US 10 Year Government Bond Yield

  • SG 10 Year: 2.37% (increased from 1.84%)
  • US 10 Year: 2.39% (decreased from 1.77%)

Major REIT News in March 2022


ESR, ALOG Unitholders vote in favour of merger to form ESR-LOGOS REIT

THE BUSINESS TIMES: THE managers of ESR-Reit [ESR-REIT : J91U -1.16%] and Ara Logos Logistics Trust (ALog Trust) [ARA LOGOS Log Tr : K2LU -0.59%] must surely be heaving huge sighs of relief.

After a series of speed bumps, the managers of the 2 real estate investment trusts (Reits) have finally gotten the nod of approval by their respective unitholders to go ahead with the merger to form ESR-Logos Reit (E-Log Reit).

At its extraordinary general meeting (EGM) at 10 am on Monday (Mar 21), unitholders of ESR-Reit voted overwhelmingly in favour of the merger.

 

Some 98.6 per cent of unitholders voted in favour of the merger, and 98.4 per cent agreed to the issuance of new ESR-Reit units to ALog Trust unitholders at an issue price of S$0.4924 apiece as part of the consideration of the merger.

Valid votes were cast by unitholders holding a total of 1.22 billion ESR-Reit units.

“The EGM results validate our belief that unitholders appreciate the importance of size and scale as we embark on our next phase of growth,” said Adrian Chui, chief executive officer of the ESR-Reit manager. Read More here

View our 2-part Q&A Series with ESR REIT and ALOG REIT here, with your questions regarding the merger answered.

Part 1 with ESR REIT

Part 2 with ARA LOGOS Logistics Trust

Summary


Fundamentally, the whole Singapore REITs landscape is at fair value based on the average Price/NAV value of the S-REITs. Below is the market cap heat map for the past 1 month. Generally, S-REITs in the past month have increased in market cap. 

Notably, 4 of 5 of the strongest performers are Hospitality REITs. This can be attributed to the full reopening of Singapore’s borders for vaccinated travelers. Only 6 REITs have dropped in the past month.

(Source: https://stocks.cafe/kenny/overview)

Yield spread (in reference to the 10 year Singapore government bond of 2.37% as of 3rd April 2022) tightened significantly from 4.14% to 3.49%. The S-REIT Average Yield remained almost the same, but with an increase in Singapore Government Bond Yields from 1.84% to 2.37%, Yield Spread tightened.

The risk premium has dropped, but still remains attractive (compared to other asset classes) to accumulate Singapore REITs in stages to lock in the current price and to benefit from long-term yield after the recovery, especially since the S-REIT Market is still at a fair value. Moving forward, it is expected that DPU will continue to increase due to the recovery of the global economy, as seen in the previous few earning updates, especially for Hospitality REITs. NAV is expected to be adjusted upward due to revaluation of the portfolio.

Technically the FTSE ST REIT index has started a short term trend with the eye of the next crucial resistance at 890 to break. Breaking this resistance will wake up the bull for the Singapore REITs sector.

You can listen to my monthly REIT radio interview on MoneyFM89.3 here.

Note: This above analysis is for my own personal research and it is NOT a buy or sell recommendation. Investors who would like to leverage my extensive research and years of Singapore REIT investing experience can approach me separately for a REIT Portfolio Consultation.

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director  and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Monthly Update (April 3rd 2022)

How do ESG requirements impact REITs financially? Interview with Elite Commercial REIT (Part 2)

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While ESG requirements are slowly legislated into countries around the world including Singapore, we take a look at how they could impact REITs financially. In this 2nd part of a 2-part series (Read Part 1 here), we interview Elite Commercial REIT on the aspect of ESG, ESG requirements in its area of operations (United Kingdom), how Elite Commercial REIT intends to meet these requirements and the financial impact ESG requirements may cause to their operations.

 

ESG Requirements in the United Kingdom


Kenny: In some countries, there are laws stating that buildings that are let to government agencies must meet certain environmental and sustainability standards. Are there any such requirements in the United Kingdom?

Shaldine: Yes, there are. In the UK, there is an EPC (Energy Performance Certificate) rating for every building. In Wales and England, there are stipulated laws where you must meet minimum EPC ratings by a certain year. In Scotland, these laws have not been legislated due to COVID, but the government has laid out plans to do so in the near future.

(Editor’s Note: Taken from here these are the required EPC ratings in the future:

  • 1 April 2018 (Passed): It is unlawful for landlords to grant a new tenancy of commercial property with an EPC rating below E.
  • 1 April 2023, Existing leases cannot be renewed for properties with an EPC below E.
  • *1 April 2027: All commercial rented buildings must have improved the building to an EPC ≥ C, or register a valid exemption.
  • *1 April 2030: All commercial rented buildings must have improved the building to an EPC ≥ B, or register a valid exemption.

*Not legislated yet. You may refer to Elite Commercial REIT’s announcement (dated 28 Feb 2022) for more information about the requirements.

The United Kingdom uses this progressive EPC modelling in order to eventually reach net-zero in 2050.

Our team is very aware of these laid-out requirements, and thus, we are working together with our tenants to ensure our properties remain relevant and meet these requirements in the longer term.

 

Meeting ESG Requirements


Kenny: Do you have a timeframe in terms of meeting these requirements (for example, achieve a minimum EPC rating of x within 3 years or 5 years etc.)

Jonathan: One of the challenges is that our properties that are let out to the government are under full repairing and insuring lease terms , commonly known as Triple Net Lease, (Editor’s Note: read more here) where the tenant is responsible for all the capex (repair costs, maintenance costs etc). This unfortunately limits our ability as the landlord, to do upgrading works. However, with information on EPC ratings available publicly, not only are we able to obtain information on EPC ratings, we are also able to obtain information such as the recommended works to be done to improve EPC ratings. We are collecting data across all 155 properties within our portfolio. For assets which are found to be below the regulatory requirements, our focus will be to work on them to meet the requirements. We currently have a couple of assets rated ‘F’ in Scotland and a few assets rated ‘E’, and we are working to improve the energy efficiency credentials of these assets.

 

Our team is very aware of these laid-out requirements, and thus, we are working together with our tenants to ensure our properties remain relevant and meet these requirements in the longer-term.

 

We see working on these assets to improve their EPC ratings as an opportunity. This is because several of the EPC criteria are related to energy performance. We are encouraged to make our buildings more efficient and by doing so, utility costs that the tenant has to pay reduces, thereby benefitting them as well.

We have worked with one of our banks with regard to a ‘green buildings tool’ developed by the bank, which can estimate the financial savings you get for implementing various works to improve energy ratings. Some of our works include changing glazing systems, improving lighting systems, insulation systems and heating systems. These investments are beneficial in the long-term since it reduces utility costs for the tenant.

Kenny: Therefore, does the tenant (UK Government) or Elite Commercial REIT own the EPC ratings?

Shaldine: We are the owner of the building, therefore we own the EPC ratings. However, since the lease is an FRI lease (full repairing and insuring lease), the tenants are the ones that perform the works on the building.

From what we understand, the Government has a program put in place that allocates a certain amount of capital expenditure (capex) to be used on our portfolio over the next few years. Although we are the landlord, at the moment, any capex work is not our responsibility. This may seem beneficial for our financial bottom line, but it runs the risk of the tenant delaying the required works until the end of their lease (or not even doing any work at all), which may result in properties that do not meet the EPC requirements when the lease ends. 

In addition, since our tenant is the UK government, it would be ironic for them to not perform the works required to get the buildings to meet the EPC requirements.

 

Therefore, to ensure a building stays relevant, we as the landlord, are willing to contribute a certain portion of the capex, so that we will be able to bring the buildings up to the required EPC standards, by the time the minimum EPC rating legislation comes into effect. In the short-term, we may take a small financial hit, but it is beneficial in the longer term.

In addition, since our tenant is the UK government, it would be ironic for them not to perform the works required to get the buildings up to minimum EPC requirements. By working together with the government, we are also able to avoid a situation where there is an imbalance of work done, where some buildings may be worked on all the time while neglecting others.

Update: In announcements dated 28 February 2022 and 11 March 2022, Elite Commercial REIT announced that it is embarking on its first sustainability collaboration with its main occupier, the Department for Work and Pensions (“DWP”). The REIT will invest an aggregate of £14.67 million to improve the energy efficiency credentials of the properties in the REIT’s portfolio that are currently occupied by the DWP. The agreed upon asset enhancement works would include the repair, replacement or upgrade of the lighting systems, heating and cooling systems, insulation and solar panels, and other initiatives that will improve the Energy Performance Certificate (“EPC”) ratings of these buildings. The Sustainability Collaboration is part of the Manager’s proactive strategy to ensure that the properties remain relevant and to enhance the long-term value of Elite Commercial REIT by integrating sustainability considerations into its overall business strategy. This innovative collaboration with Elite Commercial REIT’s primary occupier, DWP, marks a commitment by both the landlord and the occupier to achieve sustainability goals such as the UK Government’s commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050.

 

Financial Impact of ‘Going Green’ and its benefits


Kenny: W.r.t performing the works required to greenify your properties, do you receive any subsidy for the capex required for it? What will be the impact of such capex on distribution yield?

Joel (CFO): Funding wise, it will be via existing or new debt and cash retained from DRP. The value that is driven from the ‘renewal’ of these properties will be the increase in the inherent value of these properties. When that is factored into consideration, banks are more willing to give more loans. Typically, banks operate on an LTV basis, so when your property value goes up, the amount the bank will be willing to loan tend to go up as well.

Secondly, if we do not take a short-term drag on our earnings, due to increased equity base (through DRP) and increased borrowing costs (through debt) to perform these works, our buildings may subsequently become non-compliant and hence irrelevant. It is much more important to put some spending in now to ensure our buildings will remain relevant.

 

If we do not take a short-term drag on our earnings, due to increased equity base (through DRP) and increased borrowing costs (through debt) to perform these works, our buildings may subsequently become non-compliant and hence irrelevant.

Shaldine: In terms of capex required, it is the same for other properties as well. Just because we are let to the UK Government doesn’t mean we do not need to set aside capex to perform the works. It is the job as the landlord to ensure that our properties remain relevant. We do not think that just because the lease is an FRI lease means that we can sit back and not do anything. Also, since we are also listed on the SGX, we are not just required to meet the ESG requirements of the UK Government, but also of the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s Environmental Risk Management requirement to conduct climate-related risk assessment and also SGX listing requirements to publish a Sustainability Report.

 

Kenny: Based on your experience, when a building is greener (meets EPC requirements), what is the rough impact on valuation and/or the NAV?

Jonathan: It is not clear yet. Investors have only recently been more interested in acquiring buildings that have better EPC certification and meet its requirements. In the past, there hasn’t been a differentiation between sustainable buildings and non‑sustainable buildings. 

However, in theory, this should increase its property valuation. Let’s say we and/or the tenant makes an investment to improve the EPC rating of a building. By doing so, the building becomes better performing. Decreasing its running costs, for example, ends up saving money for the tenant. You’ll therefore expect an increase in valuation due to the increase in demand for tenants.

Diagram showing how investment into green buildings can increase a property’s valuation.

 

Shaldine: Right now, there isn’t a clear answer in terms of “for every $1 of capex I put into a building, it returns me $x amount.” It definitely also depends on the works that are done using the capex, for example, I replace similar lightbulbs using the capex, it may not translate into improved building efficiencies compared to if I change the entire lighting system.

 

 

 

 

Read Part 1 here, where we touch learning more about Elite Commercial REIT, its future plans, its sponsors and how the idea for this REIT was conceived, 

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement
 
You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

Continue ReadingHow do ESG requirements impact REITs financially? Interview with Elite Commercial REIT (Part 2)