Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 4 Mar 2018

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Technical Analysis

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) increases slightly from 805.48 to 811.22 (+0.7%) as compared to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Feb 12, 2017.  The REIT index up trend is definitely over and looks like going to reverse to down trend after breaking the 200D SMA support. There are a few bearish signals from the charts:

  • 20D has crossed down 50D and 200D SMA.  This is the 2nd warning signal the FTSE ST REIT index will start the down trend.
  • A Bearish Pennant is in formation. Breaking down this pennant will send the index down to 740-750 region.
  • 200D SMA is served as tough resistance now and will turned down pretty soon if index cannot get back above the 200D SMA.
  • The index now is consolidating around the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement Level.
  • The immediate important support is 800. Breaking this 800 support is the confirmed signal for the bearish trend starts as a “Lower Low” will be formed.

Fundamental Analysis

  • Price/NAV increases from 1.04 to 1.05 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is still over value now after the recent sell off).
  • Distribution Yield decreases from 6.54% to 6.47% (take note that this is lagging number). About one quarter of Singapore REITs (9 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%.
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 34.4% to 34.8%.  20 out of 37 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%. In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy.
  • Most overvalue REIT is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.62), followed by Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.49), First REIT (Price/NAV = 1.34) and  Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.36).
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.66), followed by OUE Comm REIT (Price/NAV = 0.77)  and Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.74).
  • Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (8.94%), followed by SoilBuild BizREIT (8.72%), Viva Industrial Trust (8.59%), Sabana REIT (8.28%), and Cache Logistic Trust (8.02%).
  • Highest Gearing Ratio are Soilbuild BizREIT (40.6%) and iREIT Global (40.3%).

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

Interest Rate

  • 1 month increases from 1.00879% to 1.12625%
  • 3 month increases from 1.12691% to 1.24563%
  • 6 month increases from 1.33784% to 1.39888%
  • 12 month increases from 1.46634% to 1.52796%

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is still over value now after the recent sell off.  Overall yield for Singapore REIT is still attractive (average yield of 6.47%) but we have to watch closely the US interest rate hike (84.5% probability US Fed is going to increase another 25 bps to 1.75%). The FTSE ST REIT Index has already moved ahead before the next interest rate announcement on Mar 21, after dropping about 7.4% from the peak.  Currently the REIT index is trading in consolidation phase.  The index may have another big move after reaching the apex of the bearish pennant pattern. Technically the direction of the REIT index is short term side way and medium term down trend.

 

What Should You Do?

  • If you are holding any big REIT position, you may want to reduce your exposure or hedge your portfolio. You have to proactively manage (making decision logically) your portfolio instead of reacting to the event (emotion takes over) when things happen. Be prepared for another huge leg down after the Mar 21 Fed announcement of the rate hike.
  • If you do not have any REIT now but want to build up your REIT portfolio for passive income, it is time to do homework now to put fundamental strong REIT into your watch list. You can do a great shopping when there is panic selling.
  • I receive many emails asking me when is my next REIT class. Unfortunately there is NO firm schedule at the moment. Tentatively I am planning in May or June 2018 but it is very much depends on my schedule. I would suggest you subscribe through my mailing list to be kept posted on the next REIT class schedule. https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/singapore-reits-investing/
  • If you need an independent professional review on your current REIT portfolio and need any recommendation, you may engage me in the REIT portfolio Advisory. REITs Portfolio Advisory.  https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/

 

 

See all other relevant  Singapore REITs blog posts here.

 

 

 

 

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 4 Mar 2018

Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 12 Feb 2018

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Sorry for the late Singapore REIT monthly update. I decided to delay the posting due to 2 reasons:

  1. Market is going through a correction. It is better to wait for the price to settle down for a better reflection of the Prive/NAV valuation and yield.
  2. I was busying meeting my students  so that I can complete the private 1 on 1 portfolio review before Chinese New Year. In the consultation session, I advise my students how can they optimize return of their investment portfolio and at the same time reduce their portfolio risks if there is a big market correction.

 

Technical Analysis

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) sharp dropped from 855.88 to 805.48 (-5.89%) compare to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Jan 1, 2017.  Uptrend is over after the index broke the uptrend channel support. There is also an early warning that the index can go lower as the 20D SMA is going to cross down 50D SMA, based on previous patterns in May 2015 and Nov 2016. The index also broke the 200D SMA support and currently clinging on the last defence at 800 support.

 

 

 

Fundamental Analysis

  • Included Cromwell European REIT and Keppel KBS REIT in the table. Total 39 REITs in Singapore Exchange.
  • Price/NAV decreases from 1.08 to 1.04 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is still over value now after the recent sell off).
  • Distribution Yield increases 6.38% to 6.54% (take note that this is lagging number). About one third number of Singapore REITs (11 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%.
  • Gearing Ratio increases from 34.2%. to 34.4%.  19 out of 37 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%. In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy.
  • Most overvalue REIT is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.58), followed by Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.44), First REIT (Price/NAV = 1.34) and  Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.36).
  • Most undervalue (base on NAV) is Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.65), Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.71) and OUE Comm REIT (Price/NAV = 0.77)
  • Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (8.8%), followed by SoilBuild BizREIT (8.79%), Sabana REIT (8.6%), Viva Industrial Trust (8.35%) and Cache Logistic Trust (8.02%).
  • Highest Gearing Ratio are iREIT Global (41.7%) and Soilbuild BizREIT (40.6%)

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • 1 month decreases from 1.12375% to 1.00879%
  • 3 month decreases from 1.24325% to 1.12691%
  • 6 month increases from 1.31183% to 1.33784%
  • 12 month increases from 1.43917% to 1.46634%

 

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is still over value now after the recent sell off.  Overall yield for Singapore REIT is still attractive but we have to watch closely the US interest rate hike and the risk free 10 Year Treasury Yield. The yield spread is narrowing compared to 1 year ago.

I also warned against the potential sharp drop of FTSE ST REIT Index on Jan 22, 2018 (Online Traders Club Singapore) OTCS event at SGX based on valuation, technical analysis and cyclical nature of REIT sector. You can find the following slides below.

 

 

No one can predict the market but there are warning signs on the Singapore REIT sector. My focus is purely on the FTSE ST REIT index chart now to see whether the last 800 support can be hold.

Safe investing in 2018!

 

See all other relevant  Singapore REITs blog posts here.

Check out coming seminars at https://mystocksinvesting.com/events

 

 

 

 

 

Continue ReadingSingapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 12 Feb 2018

Singapore REITs Market Outlook 2018

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  • Will 2018 be another good year for REITs?
  • Do you know how to identify the risk in the REITs market?

I’ve been invited to give my views of the Singapore REITs market outlook 2018 to several private investor groups recently; they are not open to the public.

On Mon 22 Jan 2018, OTCS invited me to share my outlook for the REITs market this year at SGX Auditorium, together with another two expert speakers who will share their outlook about the Singapore stocks and bonds markets.

This market outlook  is FREE (registration required) and is my ONLY REITs market outlook open to the public.

Please register and join me if you can make it on Mon 22 Jan 2018.

Click here for details and registration.

See you on Mon 22 Jan!

Continue ReadingSingapore REITs Market Outlook 2018