Singapore REIT Price / NAV Range Chart Jan-2019

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Original post from https://mystocksinvesting.com

Singapore REIT Price / NAV Range Chart base on Jan 1, 2019 Singapore REITs Table.

 

See last Singapore REITs Price/NAV here to see the changes.

Disclaimer: This chart is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell. Do NOT use it if you don’t understand how to interpret it.

 

Check below on other events:

https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/singapore-reits-investing/REITs Investing Course 

https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/REITs Portfolio Advisory 

https://mystocksinvesting.com/events/

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Singapore REIT Fundamental Analysis Comparison Table – 1 Jan 2019

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Technical Analysis of FTSE ST REIT Index (FSTAS8670)

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trusts (FTSE ST REIT Index) decreased from 783.05  to 777.45 (-0.72%) as compared to last post on Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table on Dec 3, 2018.

Currently the index is trading in a down trend channel and testing a Resistance Turned Support at about 774. If this support holds, the REIT index will be moving side way in a consolidation range.

Based on the current chart pattern and trend analysis, the trend for Singapore REIT direction SIDE WAY to DOWN! The REIT index will be capped by the immediate resistance at about 800 which is the 200D SMA resistance and also the round number.

 

Fundamental Analysis of 39 Singapore REITs

The following is the compilation of 39 REITs in Singapore as of Dec 2018 with colour coding of the Distribution Yield, Gearing Ratio and Price to NAV Ratio. This gives investors a quick glance of which REITs are attractive enough to have an in-depth analysis. There are currently 39 REITs in Singapore after VIVA Industrial Trust merged into ESR REIT.

 

  • Price/NAV decreases from 0.94 to 0.93 (Singapore Overall REIT sector is under value now).
  • Distribution Yield increases from 7.16% to 7.24% (take note that this is lagging number). About 48.7% of Singapore REITs (19 out of 39) have Distribution Yield > 7%.
  • Gearing Ratio stays at 34.6%.  19 out of 39 have Gearing Ratio more than 35%. In general, Singapore REITs sector gearing ratio is healthy. Note: The limit of gearing ratio for REITs listed in Singapore Stock Exchange is 45%.
  • The most overvalue REIT is Parkway Life (Price/NAV = 1.52), followed by Keppel DC REIT (Price/NAV = 1.32), Mapletree Industrial Trust (Price/NAV = 1.29) and Ascendas REIT (Price/NAV = 1.25).
  • The most undervalue (base on NAV) is OUE Comm REIT (Price/NAV = 0.52), followed by Fortune REIT (Price/NAV = 0.55), Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (Price/NAV=0.66), Keppel KBS US REIT (Price/NAV=0.70), Far East Hospitality Trust (Price/NAV = 0.70), Sabana REIT (Price/NAV = 0.75) and Starhill Global REIT (Price/NAV = 0.76).
  • The Highest Distribution Yield (TTM) is Lippo Mall Indonesia Retail Trust (13.96%), followed by Cromwell European REIT (10.64%), Keppel KBS US REIT (9,71%), OUE Comm REIT (9.72%), Sasseur REIT (9.36%), SoilBuild BizREIT (8.99%), EC World REIT (8.86%) and Cache Logistic Trust (8.63%).
  • The Highest Gearing Ratio are Far East HTrust (40.3%) and OUE Comm REIT (41.4%).

Disclaimer: The above table is best used for “screening and shortlisting only”. It is NOT for investing (Buy / Sell) decision. To learn how to use the table and make investing decision, Sign up next REIT Investing Seminar here to learn how to choose a fundamentally strong REIT for long term investing for passive income generation.

 

  • 1 month increases from 1.63433% to 1.64933%
  • 3 month increases from 1.75908% to 1.76808%
  • 6 month increases from 1.87918% to 1.88533%
  • 12 month increases from 2.06375% to 2.06702%

There were no knee jerk reaction for the FTSE ST REIT Index after the US Fed raised interest rate to 2.5% on Dec 19.

Based on current probability of Fed Rate Monitor, the US interest rate may stay at 2.5%.

 

 

 

Summary

Fundamentally the whole Singapore REITs is under value now.  Overall yield for Singapore REIT is very attractive (average yield of 7.26%) especially for small and mid cap REIT. The last time we have seen Price/NAV = 0.93 and Distribution Yield of more than 7% is back to Dec 2015. You may compare the Singapore REIT Fundamental Comparison Table in Dec 2015 to see the similarity and you should be able to identify some attractive opportunities.

Yield spread (reference to 10 year Singapore government bond) has widened from 4.476% to 5.19%.  DPU yield for a number of small and mid-cap REITs are very attractive  (>8%) at the moment.  Some big cap REITs are also very attractive in terms of valuation and distribution yield. With the widening yield spread and potentially no further interest rate hike, this may be a good news for Singapore REITs in 2019.

Technically, the REIT index is entering into consolidation phase with immediate support at 774. As long as 760 support holds, it may be a good time for more accumulation because the risk premium is very attractive for small and medium cap REITs now. Investors can do some selective shopping when the down trend stop for those REITs.

Watch for the trend reversal for FTSE ST REIT index in 2019!

Happy hunting on Singapore REITs in 2019!

 

See all other relevant  Singapore REITs blog posts here.

If you need an independent professional review on your current REIT portfolio and need any recommendation, you may engage me in the REIT portfolio Advisory. REITs Portfolio Advisory.  https://mystocksinvesting.com/course/private-portfolio-review/

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NASDAQ Composite Index [^IXIC] (28 Dec 2018)

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By: Soh YJ

 

Overall the ^IXIC continue a downward pressure. As the moving averages and MACD remain bearish.

 

Performance as at YTD 1 WK 1 MTH 3 MTH 6 MTH 1 YR 2 YR 5 YR
28 Dec 2018 0.08 4.19 -9.47 -18.08 -12.33 –4.62 19.26 59.36

*Performance in %

 

 

After continuous of red candles over the month of December, ^IXIC gain a strong rebound on 26 Dec 2018 and ended the week with a doji candlestick, indicating the market is not certain the direction of the prices.

 

 

Events happen between 24 Dec – 28 Dec 2018

 

 

Annual Changes in NASDAQ 100 Index (24 December 2018)

NASDAQ-100, NDX, index is composed of the annual 100 largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq. Nasdaq-100 is re-ranked annually.

 

Inclusion Exclusion
AMD, LULU, NTAP, UAL, VRSN, WLTL ESRX, HOLX, QRTEA, SHPG, STX, VOD

 

How it affects me?

ETFs are designed to track the index, the rebalancing means the stocks in the basket would be sold or added, potentially changes the component’s position size. Meaning, individual stocks will increase it volatility during the rebalancing period.

 

 

Most Positive Movement (24 Dec – 28 Dec)

 

Criteria for screening:

 

  • Market capital (Over 300 million)
    • Small to Mid-cap ($3m to $2b) stocks may not fall into most investor radar yet, potential to grow. Too small may have higher risk

 

  • IPO more than 10 years
    • Have a history, less risk of the business failing

 

  • Current volume (over 200k)
    • Typical stocks have at least 100k trade volume per day

 

  • Price (Over $10)
    • Stock less than $5 are risky and prone to speculation

 

  • Institutional ownership (Over 40%)
    • Institute have more information than retail investors. If institute don’t own any of the stock, you should not too.

 

  • The price changes should be < index movement
    • Should be more volatile than index, else buying an Index ETF will be more efficient.

 

AMAT and ENTG is more suitable for Mid to long term investment as the gross profit, net income and cash flow is more stable.

 

ENTG AMAT ACLS PAR
Price (28 Dec 2018) 27.47 32.38 17.76 22.14
Performance Week[7] 8.11% 4.79% 7.05% 24.66%
Zack Ranking[9] Hold Hold Strong Sell Not available
Consistent increase in Gross profit  4Yrs [6] Yes Yes No Yes
Consistent increase in Net Income 4Yrs [6] No No No No
Consistent increase in Operation cash flow  4Yrs [6] Yes No No No
Mean projected growth rate[8] 18.03% 16.98% 20.00% Not available
Outstanding shares (Millions) [8] 141.79 982.99 31.22 15.91
Net Profit margin compare to industries 5Yrs [8] Lower Higher Lower Lower
ROE >12%[7] 12.7% 45.40% 34.20% -35.90%
Current ratio >1[7] 3.9 2.6 5.5 1.5
Debt/Equity ratio <1[7] 0.6 0.78 0.12 0.14
Calculated Debt servicing ratio <30% 11.02% 14.70% 0.89% 5.76%
Calculated Intrinsic Value 27.45 46.01 31.51 0.65
Current Trend Down Down Down Down

*The intrinsic value is calculated using 2 stage DCF model- 10yrs

 

News

PAR [17 Dec 2018]- PAR Technology SureCheck Food safety solution named to food logistics’ 2018 FL100 + Top software and Technology Providers [11]

 

 

 

Reference

[1]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-22/trump-said-to-discuss-firing-fed-s-powell-after-latest-rate-hike

[2] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-wall-street-falls-mnuchin-163300626.html

[3] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-just-told-buy-stocks-141420498.html

[4] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/faang-kicks-losing-streak-post-210800875.html

[5] https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-stocks-resume-retreat-huge-153326611.html

[6] https://finance.yahoo.com/

[7] https://finviz.com/

[8] https://www.reuters.com/

[9] https://www.zacks.com/stocks/zacks-rank

[10] https://business.nasdaq.com/mediacenter/pressreleases/1862596/annual-changes-to-the-nasdaq-100-index

[11] https://www.partech.com/news/par-technologys-surecheck-food-safety-solution-named-to-food-logistics-2018-fl100-top-software-and-technology-providers/

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