Recent Posts - My Stocks Investing

Noble Group: Head and Shoulder

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 25, 2014

Noble Group has broken down from a Head and Shoulder pattern with neckline at about $1.00. Price target for this break down is about $0.87. Expect more down side in the coming weeks.

See previous analysis on Noble Group here.

Current P/E Ratio (ttm)	27.8408
Estimated P/E(12/2013)	15.5594
Relative P/E vs. FSSTI	2.1405
Earnings Per Share (USD) (ttm)	0.0268
Est. EPS (USD) (12/2013)	0.0480
Est. PEG Ratio	1.3955
Market Cap (M SGD)	6,329.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,628.03
30 Day Average Volume	15,960,800
Price/Book (mrq)	0.9757
Price/Sale (ttm)	0.0493
Dividend Indicated Gross Yield	2.36%
Cash Dividend (USD)	0.0181
Dividend Ex-Date	05/14/2013
5 Year Dividend Growth	0.53%
Next Earnings Announcement	02/28/2014

Why Most Investors Lose Money in Real Estate and Property Stocks in 2013?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 23, 2014

In general, your portfolio should have a lot of red (if you are still holding now) if you have invested in any property stocks (Capitaland, Keppel Land, City Development, UOL, etc) and REITs but did not hedge your portfolio with CFD.

So A-million dollar questions to most of the investors or traders in Singapore including myself:

Is it the right time to pick up property stocks or REITs since the stock price has dropped so much?
What should I do if I am still holding those property stocks and REITs? Should I cut loss or hold on and wait for the recovery?
Is there any trading opportunity in property stocks?

Fundamentally the real estate / property sectors are hit by all the cooling measures and fear of interest hike due to QE tapering. I will not touch on the above 2 topics as there are already a lot of news and articles talking the impact to the property sectors in Singapore. I will be focusing in using technical analysis to analyse the overall trend for property sectors as a whole and individual stocks.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index

The index is trading in a Elliott Wave pattern and there is a possibility to start a Big Wave C down if break down from the Falling Wedge.

FTSE ST Real Estate Investment Trust Index

Singapore REITs is officially enter into bear trend after dropping more than 20% from the top.

The chart pattern is similar to FTSE ST Real Estate Index (Elliott Wave + Falling Wedge). More selling of the REIT is the support (about 690) of Falling wedge is broken.

FTSE ST Real Estate Index Components Stocks

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks and Property Stocks

Fundamental Comparison for Singapore REITs

Hong Kong Land – Down Trend

Global Logistic Properties (GLP) – Up Trend

Capitaland – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

City Development – Break out from Descending Triangle. Continue Down Trend.

UOL Limited – Trading in a Falling Wedge.

CapitaMall Trust – In consolidation.

Ascendas REIT – Consolidation in Rectangle. Range Bound.

Suntec REIT – In consolidation.

CapitaCommercial Trust – In consolidation.

Summary

Most of the property stocks and REITs either trading on down trend on in consolidation. Take note that the stocks are trading below 200D SMA (long term trend) which is sloping down (bearish signal). Base on the charts, this property and Real Estate sector have not found the bottom yet and probably will continue trading in a down trend in 2014. Bad news for investors who are still holding the stocks but good news for traders who know how to short the stock market. It will be a while for those smart investors who want undervalue stocks (Hong Kong Land, Capitaland, UOL, Keppel Land) to buy at bottom but need to keep a close eye on the chart.

Will Shipping Stocks in 2014 Recover?

Post author:Marubozu
Post published:January 21, 2014

2014 is Wooden Horse Year. Base on Fengshui and Numerology, stocks associate with water and transportation (Horse is used as transportation in the old days) should do well in 2014. This trigger me to do an analysis on the Maritime sector and shipping stocks in Singapore.

Original post by Marubozu from My Stocks Investing Journey.

FTSE ST Maritime Index Chart

The index has started an uptrend (forming a Higher High and Higher Low) but need to see whether all the key component stocks are on up trend. If all big cap component stocks are showing the same up trend pattern, it means the shipping sector has recovered in 2014 as investors are back in this sector.

FTSE ST Maritime Index Components Stocks

Yangzijiang has the largest weightage (48.31%) in this index, followed by NOL, Cosco Corp, Jaya Holding and the rest.

Fundamental Comparison for Key Component Stocks

In general, Yangzijiang has the best fundamental compare with other stocks in this Maritime Index, followed by Jaya Holding. Cosco & NOL fundamental are pretty weak at the moment. We need to monitor Cosco & NOL in the coming earning announcement to see whether there are any significant improvement in the financial.

Yangzijiang Chart

YZJ is on uptrend and currently testing the uptrend support. This is the main reason that the FTSE ST Maritime Index is on up trend as YZJ has the largest weightage on the index. This is a FALSE alarm that Maritime or Shipping Industry has recovered.

COSCO Chart

Cosco is currrently forming a Symmetrial Triangle and looks like has bottoming up. Watch out for the breakout and move above the 200D SMA resistance. This is the reversal pattern.

NOL Chart

NOL is consolidating in a big Descending Triangle and looks like finding a bottom at about $1.00. Watch out for the breakout to upside for trend reversal.

Jaya Holding Chart

Jaya Holding chart is bullish. The stock may move higher if the whole industry recovers due to Jaya’s good fundamental and the valuation is not demanding.

In Summary

There is a chance that Shipping stocks will recover in 2014.

Things to watch out for:

Fundamentally Cosco & NOL must show improvement in their financial performance for subsequent 2 quarters.
Technically Cosco & NOL must breakout and move above the 200D SMA resistance.
As long as there are no shock news in terms of financial performance for Yangzijiang, Cosco & NOL, shipping stocks should recover and start an uptrend in 2014.