Discounted Cash Flow Model
- FY2009 Net Operating Cash Flow = S$75.82 Million
- Discount Rate = 6%
- Number of Shares Outstanding = 992.3 Million
- Intrinsic Value
- Best Case @15% Annual Growth Rate = $1.23
- Median Case @ 10% Moderate Growth Rate = $0.94
- Worst Case @ 0% Growth for the next 10 years = $0.56
Discounted EPS Model
- Rolling EPS = S$0.06459
- Discount Rate = 6%
- Intrinsic Value
- Best Case @15% Annual Growth Rate = $1.04
- Median Case @ 10% Moderate Growth Rate = $0.80
- Worst Case @ 0% Growth for the next 10 years = $0.48
- Use PE @ 15 as fair value
- Intrinsic Value = $0.97
- Current Price = $0.245
- Current Rolling PE = 3.79
- PEG Ratio @ 15% Growth = 0.25 (<< 1) Super Under Value
- PEG Ratio @ 10% Growth = 0.38 (<< 1) Super Under Value
- Using MOST CONSERVATIVE Intrinsic Value calculation (ie. 0% Growth for the next 10 years), IV = $0.48 (49% Discount to current price of $0.245)
- Using a more reasonable 10% Growth Rate for the next 10 years, IV = $0.80 (70% Discount to current price of $0.245)
A potential Multibagger penny stock? You decide……
This Post Has 6 Comments
Any idea why the stock dropped so much today with huge volume?
Just checked the SGX website. Seem that Dapai have a problem with luggage production.
Is it still a buy esp with the sharp drop in price today? To build a factory and to source for new supplier to produce their luggages will take time so it is a problem that is not going to be solved in a short time.
Appreciate your comment. Thanks.
(1) Base on chart: A sharp drop in price today may be a good time to accumulate.Today price reaches the support level. Unless there are further bad news to trigger heavy selling, this level should be a good entry level (about $0.205 to $0.21).
(3) Base on Fundamental: Yes. You are right they may need some time to get their supply chain issues resolved. They may take another one or two quarters to get it fixed. This supply issue may impact the opening of 500 new stores early next year and impact the Sales revenue. However, base on my Intrinsic value calculation using DCF Model & Discounted EPS @ 0% growth for the next 10 year, IV = $0.48 to $0.56. The stock is still under value. So far I don’t see any serious bad news to impact Dapai ability to continue to generate cash.
(a) Dapai is still continue to build their brand
(b) Dapai is still opening new stores
(c) Dapai is building new factories to increase their capacity.
(d) NAV = $0.31
(e) Dapai has no debt. Have S$139 Million Cash on hand.
(f) Current Ratio = 4.9. No risk of bankruptcy.
(4) Stock Price Catalysts
(a) Potential Dual listing (Announcement a few months back)
(b) Review of the Dividend Policy (Current payout ratio is 20%) – From FY2009 Annual Report
(c) On the look out to acquire an International Brand (mentioned by Chairman in the last AGM)
Be fearful when others are greedy; be greedy when others are fearful… — Warren Buffet —
they will be opening their stores in 1QTR 2011 which they have nothing to sell. Revenue may be seriously impact with additional capex w/o income.
Im waiting for the 3 QTR result next month before thinking of reinvesting again.
Any entry price you are looking at since it touch 0.205 or you have already accumulate some?
Kosh, I will wait for the Q3 result to analyse the situation again. Anyway, Dapai has delayed their opening of new stores from 2H2010 to 1H2011. I think they have factored in this supply issues and thus delay the opening.
No hurry to accumulate now. Let’s see how serious is this impact of insufficient supply.
Extracted from the Dapai’s latest earnings report on the luggage supply issue.
Long term fix:
In order to ensure a steady luggage supply in the long run, we will construct a new luggage manufacturing plant with hostels on the Acquisition land, with estimated designed capacity of four million pieces of luggages per annum. It is targeted that the new manufacturing facility will be completed around 4Q 2011/1Q 2012
Short term fix:
As short to medium term measures, we have engaged other new luggage suppliers and manufacturing a number of our luggage products in house, to partially reduce the impact of the current luggage supply issue. We have seen improvement on the luggage supply since October and will continue sourcing for other suitable new suppliers.
Executive Chairman of Dapai International, Chen Xizhong, comments:
“Our Group has reacted quickly to solve the luggage supply issues in the short and medium term by engaging new luggage suppliers and manufacturing a number of luggage products in house. We have seen improvement on the luggage supply since October and will continue sourcing for other suitable new suppliers. Moving forward, we are implementing our expansion strategy like opening 500 new Dapai retail outlets. We expect to open these outlets in 1Q2011.”