Money & Me: How will Rising Inflation Rates impact REITs?

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18 July 2022

Money and Me: REIT picking in an inflationary environment

For the first half of 2022, the iEdge S-Reit Index has displayed strong resilience, generating flat total returns. In fact during the period, the S-Reits and property trusts sector in Singapore saw S$359 million of net institutional outflows and S$447 million of net retail inflows. Kenny Loh, REIT Specialist and Independent Financial Advisor joins Melissa Hyak on Money and Me as they discuss his 2H2022 outlook for Singapore REITs and what investors should know when REIT picking in this inflationary environment.

Timestamps

0:18 Intro

1:09 2nd Half 2022 Outlook

1:25 How has the S-REIT market fared so far this year?

2:59 Overview on last few years’ S-REIT historical performance: we are not at pre-COVID levels yet

4:06 How would you rank each REIT sectors? (Hospitality, Industrial, Retail etc.): Hospitality sector is the only sector with the most gains this year

5:21 Why is the Data Centers’ sector not performing well?

7:28 Do you still see the Hospitality sector performing well in 2H 2022? What other sectors do you see performing well?

9:11 Surviving the recession: What REIT sectors do you think are more resilient during the downturn?

11:58 Kenny’s tips on selecting the correct REITs to invest

  • Basic 3 Ratios: DPU Yield, Gearing Ratio, Price/NAV value
  • Recovery Ratios: Occupancy Rate, WALE, Property Yield
  • Debt Management: Cost of Debt, % of hedged interest rate, ICR, WADM, % Unsecured Borrowings
  • Red Flags to look out for

15:07 Outro

Listen to his previous market outlook interviews here:

2022

2021

2020

 

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  

You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

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REITs that may be most impacted by Interest Rate Hikes

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The US Fed raised interest rates by 75 basis points on June 15, 2022, which is the biggest hike in 28 years. Coupled with post-pandemic recovery, this raises the question: How will REITs be impacted by the Interest Rate Hike? This will depend on the REIT, and many factors, not limiting but including:

  • REIT Sector (Retail, Office, Industrial etc.)
  • Sponsor of REIT (Stronger sponsors tend to attain better refinancing deals)
  • Market Capitalization (The bigger the REIT, generally the more resilient its portfolio)
  • Historical performance
  • Debt Maturity Length (Weighted Average)
  • Cost of Debt (Weighted Average)
  • Gearing Ratio
  • % of Fixed Rate Debt

 

Fundamentals: Sector, Sponsor and Market Capitalisation


Generally, by combining the market capitalisation, gearing ratio, debt maturity profile and all-in interest cost, these can give investors insights on how big the interest rate hike impacts the future DPU of REITs.

In the bubble chart below, REITs with short WADM would have to refinance the debt at the highest interest rate and that will further compress the spread of DPU yield and cost of debt.

The most risky combination would be high gearing and short WADM as the REITs would probably face challenges to keep the cost of debt manageable during the refinancing exercise, as the credit rating may be downgraded due to a weaker balance sheet. The reputation of the sponsor and its market capitalisation would be very crucial at this juncture. 

 

Legend

x-axis: Weighted Average Debt Maturity (Years)

y-axis: Weighted Average Cost of Debt (Years)

Bubble Size: Gearing Ratio (The bigger the bubble the higher the gearing ratio, in green) and Market Cap (in yellow)

For comparison, Digital Core REIT (26.0%) and ARAHT (44.9%).

Bubble Chart of Cost of Debt vs WADM (Years). Size of bubble represents Gearing Ratio
Bubble Chart of Cost of Debt vs WADM (Years). Size of bubble represents Market Cap

If you want to learn about REITs more in depth, I am conducting an upcoming REIT course, where I will explain on how these ratios (Cost of Debt, WADM and Gearing) can affect its performance during Interest Rate Hikes, as well as many other factors (macro and micro) and financial ratios that can affect a REIT’s performance. You’ll receive student notes (over 300 slides long) and knowledge on all you need to know about investing in REITs (and how to get started).

 

Upcoming REIT Course


I will be conducting my next REIT course on the 16th and 23rd July 2022. It is a 2-day course where you will learn everything you need to learn about REITs for investing. I only conduct this course every quarter, so do take a look below. For a limited time only, the course fee is subsidized to cost $200 (above 40y/o) or $600 (below 40y/o)*. Take advantage of the IBF subsidy while it is still available.

You can register by clicking the link here: Building a Diversified REIT Portfolio – SGX Academy

Registration will close on 11th July, 2022.

Kenny Loh is an Associate Wealth Advisory Director  and REITs Specialist of Singapore’s top Independent Financial Advisor. He helps clients construct diversified portfolios consisting of different asset classes from REITs, Equities, Bonds, ETFs, Unit Trusts, Private Equity, Alternative Investments, Digital Assets and Fixed Maturity Funds to achieve an optimal risk adjusted return. Kenny is also a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER, SGX Academy REIT Trainer, Certified IBF Trainer of Associate REIT Investment Advisor (ARIA) and also invited speaker of REITs Symposium and Invest Fair.  You can join my Telegram channel #REITirement – SREIT Singapore REIT Market Update and Retirement related news. https://t.me/REITirement

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What Investors Could Do to Their Portfolio During This Uncertainty?

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Today’s economy is one marked by heightened uncertainty. As the world recovers from a pandemic that underscored persistent and recurring issues, the World Bank reports that global conflicts like the Russian invasion of Ukraine have worsened economic conditions. Ultimately, we might be seeing an extended period of slow growth and aggravated inflation.

For investors, making crucial decisions is critical to ensuring financial security under such turbulent conditions. With everything going on, it’s important to build a strong portfolio to see you through what could be a prolonged period of uncertainty.

Here are some things that you can do to your portfolio in the current economic climate.


Diversify your Portfolio



Investments are inherently risky, so it’s important to build resilience in your portfolio that can offset losses you might incur in certain markets. This is why you should invest in different asset classes, from stocks to ETFs. Even if you have investments that have performed well for you, it’s important not to pin it all on very few assets. You should also hedge by investing in markets that move in the opposite direction to your most volatile assets. Say, if you have stocks that are known to be volatile, you would also want to invest in bonds or investment funds.

 

Consider spread betting


 

Spread betting is a derivative strategy where you can speculate on both rising and falling financial markets, without owning the underlying asset that you’re betting on. Depending on your bet, you would either buy the market to go long, or sell it to go short, and the profitability of your spread would be determined by the accuracy of your bets. FXCM explains that spread betting’s advantages include flexibility, available leverage, market diversity, and ease of trade. As with any form of trading, spread betting necessitates carefully thought out strategies such as breakout, news-based, reversal, or trend market spread betting. If properly executed, aside from being lucrative, spread betting also has the added benefit of being tax-free and commission-free.

 

Invest in energy



Investing in energy is practically non-negotiable. Since oil is a commodity, it has value as an asset and can be traded as an investment derivative. Even though the oil and gas sector has a tendency to be cyclical, and can be volatile due to external factors that influence its distribution, its prices are always bound to go up. Timing is a critical factor in the successful turnout of your energy investments. But especially these days, the war that Russia waged on Ukraine has caused the stock prices of oil to soar, following its collapse during the pandemic. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo states oil will continue to garner demand, and it is only expected to improve further as China reopens and summer travel in the northern hemisphere begins to rise.

 

Putting money into what you believe in



Real estate investment trusts (REITs) are companies that own real estate that produce income. REIT investments are perfect for diversifying your portfolio and are a good choice in uncertain times since they provide high yields, good values, great profitability, and strong growth rates. REIT specialist Kenny Loh has stated that since the reopening of borders has been normalised, it has not had any adverse effects on healthcare and office REITS, while hospitality REITs look promising. In today’s economic state, the profitability of REITs may be largely beneficial for investors.


Uncertainty can hit any time, but there are always ways to protect yourself from these occurrences. So if you’re aiming for financial security, then it’s important to start making the proper investments now.

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